Imagines and chooses
up +150%Imagination creator
2036250
Originates worlds, premises and points of view that generative systems render at any scale.
Why it holds: Preference
100% say it applies · 1 verdict
WHAT IS LEFT
The machines got very good at making.Nobody automated the wanting.
Every job below carries a forecast: how much of the work is still done by a person, indexed to 100 in 2022 and projected to 2036. It is drawn like a price chart because that is the honest shape of the claim, a direction with noise. The numbers are ours. The verdict is yours: for each job, say whether the forecast applies.
78 of the 100 point up. They do so for one of four reasons, none of which is that a machine cannot do the work.
The four reasons
Comparative advantage
Machine compute is finite and has an opportunity cost. Work exists; it may not pay.
Preference
People value that a human did it. A premium on provenance.
Accountability
Legitimacy cannot be delegated to something that cannot be blamed.
Presence
The room, and the body in it, is the scarce good.
The five families, and the one that is falling
- Holds intentDecides what should be done at all, and designs how humans and agents share it.14 jobs
- Imagines and choosesWhen making is free, the scarce inputs are the wish, the world, and the judgement of what is good.18 jobs
- Is accountableThe analysis is done by machines; the signature stays with a person, and so does the liability.16 jobs
- Is presentBodies in rooms. The largest family by headcount and the least glamorous by title.24 jobs
- Between machine and realityGathers, grades and reports back with judgement. A person is still the cheapest general-purpose sensor.12 jobs
- Being absorbedThe drafts, follow-ups and tickets. Work that agents already do, and the number that is falling.16 jobs
Jobs on the board100
Verdicts so far1
Say the forecast applies100%
Yours0 of 100
The board
100 of 100
Holds intent
up +140%Intelligence architect
2036240
Designs an organisation’s cognition as a whole: which decisions go to which agents, where the humans sit.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Is accountable
up +130%Legitimacy officer
2036230
Cowen expects the argument about where legitimacy resides to become a standing occupation.
Why it holds: Accountability
No verdicts yet
Imagines and chooses
up +120%Worldbuilder
2036220
The premise is the product. Carroll’s muse with a production department of a hundred thousand.
Why it holds: Preference
No verdicts yet
Between machine and reality
up +120%AI evaluator
2036220
Tells the machine when it is wrong, in writing, at scale.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Holds intent
up +110%AI agent manager
2036210
The job HBR named in February and the boards priced at about $103k, no engineering required.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Between machine and reality
up +110%Expert annotator
2036210
Grades the data the models still lack, in a field only a specialist can grade.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Imagines and chooses
up +100%Taste lead
2036200
The word nobody uses for the skill everybody now lists.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Between machine and reality
up +100%Expert in the loop
2036200
The one hour of a specialist’s time that an agent cannot replace and must route to.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Holds intent
up +95%Agent operations engineer
2036195
Notices when the agents go wrong, and is paid to notice.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Holds intent
up +90%Agent architect
2036190
Today’s title for the person who decides what the agents are for.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Between machine and reality
up +90%Red-teamer
2036190
Finds the failure the model did not know it had.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Holds intent
up +85%Workflow designer
2036185
Microsoft’s phrase: designing how work gets done across humans and AI.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Between machine and reality
up +80%Data labeler
2036180
Cowen thinks this could become the largest sector after healthcare.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Holds intent
up +75%Decision engineer
2036175
Owns the shape of a decision rather than the answer to it.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Is accountable
up +75%Ethics reviewer
2036175
Someone must be blameable for what the system was allowed to do.
Why it holds: Accountability
No verdicts yet
Holds intent
up +70%Context engineer
2036170
Decides what the agents are allowed to know and remember.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Imagines and chooses
up +70%Scenario planner
2036170
Which future to plan for is a choice, and choices are what is left.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Holds intent
up +65%Founder
2036165
A company of one and a hundred agents is now a real shape.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +65%Live performer
2036165
Cowen’s in-person appearances grew 2.5× after GPT-4 shipped. The room is the scarce good.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Holds intent
up +60%Procurement of intelligence
2036160
Someone buys the compute and decides what it is spent on. Opportunity cost made into a job.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Imagines and chooses
up +60%Showrunner
2036160
A showrunner without a writers’ room.
Why it holds: Preference
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +60%Wind turbine technician
2036160
Someone climbs the tower.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Imagines and chooses
up +55%Game designer
2036155
A game designer without a studio.
Why it holds: Preference
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +55%Event producer
2036155
Physical presence as the future terms of competition.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Imagines and chooses
up +50%Editor
2036150
Half of Microsoft’s respondents name quality control of AI output as their fastest-rising skill. That is taste.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +50%Care worker
2036150
Physical togetherness as a requirement for wellbeing.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Holds intent
up +45%Chief of staff
2036145
The role the intelligence architect succeeds. Grows before it is renamed.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Imagines and chooses
up +45%Curator
2036145
Selection is scarce when supply is infinite.
Why it holds: Preference
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +45%Coach
2036145
Ben Goertzel’s second answer.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Holds intent
up +40%Strategy lead
2036140
Setting clear intent is the fastest-growing description of the job.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Imagines and chooses
up +40%Creative director
2036140
The wish and the judgement of what is good. Production is somebody else’s problem now.
Why it holds: Preference
No verdicts yet
Is accountable
up +40%Principal investigator
2036140
Trials on real humans need a human who is responsible for them.
Why it holds: Accountability
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +40%Electrician
2036140
The hand that fixes the wire. No simulation trips the breaker.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +40%Plumber
2036140
The hand that fixes the pipe.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Between machine and reality
up +40%Ethnographer
2036140
Sits in the kitchen and watches what people actually do.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Imagines and chooses
up +35%Philosopher
2036135
Harari’s hope: the machines force us to ask what a human is for.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Is accountable
up +35%Negotiator
2036135
The counterpart will not deal with an agent.
Why it holds: Accountability
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +35%Nurse
2036135
The person at the bedside.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +35%Personal trainer
2036135
The plan is free. Someone watching you do it is not.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +35%Community organiser
2036135
Rooms, again.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Holds intent
up +30%Operations lead
2036130
Starts and ends the day in dashboards nobody made by hand.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Imagines and chooses
up +30%Brand strategist
2036130
Deciding what a company means is not a generation task.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Is accountable
up +30%Attending physician
2036130
The diagnosis is the machine’s; the sign-off is the doctor’s, and so is the liability.
Why it holds: Accountability
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +30%Early-years educator
2036130
Nobody delegates a three-year-old to a screen on purpose.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +30%Physiotherapist
2036130
Hands on a body.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +30%Carpenter
2036130
Every house is a one-off on site.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Between machine and reality
up +30%Trial participant
2036130
The body in the trial that no simulation can consent for.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Between machine and reality
up +30%Sensory panelist
2036130
Tastes it.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Imagines and chooses
up +25%Art director
2036125
Chooses among ten thousand renders. Draws none of them.
Why it holds: Preference
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +25%Teacher
2036125
Goertzel named educators first: the job is the relationship, not the information transfer.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +25%Midwife
2036125
Present at the one event that cannot be rendered.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +25%Host
2036125
Welcome is a physical act.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Between machine and reality
up +25%Field inspector
2036125
Goes somewhere and reports back with judgement.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Holds intent
up +20%Product manager
2036120
Specification survives; the ticket-writing half of the job does not.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Imagines and chooses
up +20%Film director
2036120
A point of view, rendered. The crew is the part that thins.
Why it holds: Preference
No verdicts yet
Is accountable
up +20%Compliance officer
2036120
Regulators want a name.
Why it holds: Accountability
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +20%Chef
2036120
The handmade object you eat.
Why it holds: Preference
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +20%Paramedic
2036120
Arrives. The machine does the triage on the way.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +20%Therapist
2036120
One in five young Americans has an AI relationship. The human one becomes the premium version.
Why it holds: Preference
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +20%Veterinarian
2036120
The patient cannot describe the symptom to a chatbot.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Between machine and reality
up +20%Mystery shopper
2036120
A person is still the cheapest general-purpose sensor.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Imagines and chooses
up +15%Novelist
2036115
The novel written by someone who has actually been heartbroken.
Why it holds: Preference
No verdicts yet
Is accountable
up +15%Board member
2036115
The vote of a board is a decision society keeps in human hands.
Why it holds: Accountability
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +15%Firefighter
2036115
A body in the building.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +15%Hairdresser
2036115
Touch, talk, and a chair.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +15%Tour guide
2036115
Walks you there.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Between machine and reality
up +15%Correspondent
2036115
Was there. The one sentence a model cannot write.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Holds intent
up +10%Head of automation
2036110
Transitional. Peaks when everything is automated and the title stops meaning anything.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Imagines and chooses
up +10%Architect
2036110
Drafting goes; the building that has to stand, and the stamp on it, stays.
Why it holds: Accountability
No verdicts yet
Is accountable
up +10%Surgeon
2036110
Robotic hands, human name on the consent form.
Why it holds: Accountability
No verdicts yet
Is accountable
up +10%Weapons release authority
2036110
The release of a weapon: the clearest case of a decision no one will let a machine own.
Why it holds: Accountability
No verdicts yet
Is present
up +10%Sommelier
2036110
Ritual, in person.
Why it holds: Preference
No verdicts yet
Between machine and reality
up +10%Survey enumerator
2036110
Knocks on the door.
Why it holds: Presence
No verdicts yet
Imagines and chooses
up +5%Fashion designer
2036105
Provenance is the label.
Why it holds: Preference
No verdicts yet
Is accountable
up +5%Judge
2036105
Sentencing is kept in human hands on purpose.
Why it holds: Accountability
No verdicts yet
Imagines and chooses
up 0%Poet
2036100
Never paid. Still wanted.
Why it holds: Preference
No verdicts yet
Is accountable
up 0%Elected official
2036100
The one job that is, by definition, held by a person.
Why it holds: Accountability
No verdicts yet
Imagines and chooses
down -5%Composer
203695
Music is free. Music by someone is not.
Why it holds: Preference
No verdicts yet
Is accountable
down -5%Lawyer
203695
Amodei’s Jevons case: cheaper legal services mean more lawyers. Over decades.
Why it holds: Comparative advantage
No verdicts yet
Is accountable
down -5%Airline pilot
203695
The plane flies itself. The passengers will not board without a person up front.
Why it holds: Accountability
No verdicts yet
Is accountable
down -10%Auditor
203690
A signature that can be prosecuted. Fewer hours, same signature.
Why it holds: Accountability
No verdicts yet
Is accountable
down -10%Notary
203690
A witness with a stamp. Ancient, and oddly durable.
Why it holds: Accountability
No verdicts yet
Is accountable
down -15%Pharmacist
203685
Someone answers for the dose.
Why it holds: Accountability
No verdicts yet
Being absorbed
down -55%Radiology reader
203645
The reading goes; the attending who signs it stays in the accountable family.
Why it holds: No standing argument
No verdicts yet
Being absorbed
down -55%Retail financial adviser
203645
Trust migrates to whatever seems to work. Harari’s cows.
Why it holds: No standing argument
No verdicts yet
Being absorbed
down -60%Paralegal
203640
The research half of law is the half that went first.
Why it holds: No standing argument
No verdicts yet
Being absorbed
down -60%Market research analyst
203640
Synthesis was the job. Synthesis is free.
Why it holds: No standing argument
No verdicts yet
Being absorbed
down -65%Customer support agent
203635
Closed the tickets.
Why it holds: No standing argument
No verdicts yet
Being absorbed
down -65%Junior developer
203635
Three years ago the same sentences about safe jobs were being written about code.
Why it holds: No standing argument
No verdicts yet
Being absorbed
down -65%Junior analyst
203635
The deck is written before the meeting is scheduled.
Why it holds: No standing argument
No verdicts yet
Being absorbed
down -65%Recruiting screener
203635
The first-round call is an agent on both ends.
Why it holds: No standing argument
No verdicts yet
Being absorbed
down -70%Copywriter
203630
The drafts. Agents wrote them.
Why it holds: No standing argument
No verdicts yet
Being absorbed
down -70%Sales development rep
203630
Ran the follow-ups.
Why it holds: No standing argument
No verdicts yet
Being absorbed
down -70%Bookkeeper
203630
Entries post themselves.
Why it holds: No standing argument
No verdicts yet
Being absorbed
down -70%Production designer
203630
Making is free. Choosing is in the other family.
Why it holds: No standing argument
No verdicts yet
Being absorbed
down -75%Translator
203625
Literary translation keeps a preference premium. The rest does not.
Why it holds: No standing argument
No verdicts yet
Being absorbed
down -85%Stock photographer
203615
Synthetic media floods every screen.
Why it holds: No standing argument
No verdicts yet
Being absorbed
down -85%Data entry clerk
203615
The job that was always waiting to be a script.
Why it holds: No standing argument
No verdicts yet
Being absorbed
down -90%Medical transcriptionist
203610
Already gone.
Why it holds: No standing argument
No verdicts yet
The forecasts are editorial estimates drawn from the sources in Part IV: the Microsoft Work Trend Index 2026, the World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Report 2025, the Anthropic Economic Index, and the essays by Amodei, Susskind, Smith, Cowen and Stevenson. They are a starting position, not a prediction. The tallies are the correction. Verdicts are stored against an anonymous first-party cookie, one per person per job, and nothing else is recorded.